Thursday, August 14, 2008

Michael Ledeen on Russia in Georgia on National Review Online


http://article.nationalreview.com/?q=ODczYmQ1YTU2NWRkYjA4OWYzZDk2MzEzYWE3YmU2MDc=

I think it's clear that our failure to draw the line at Syria and Iran surely encouraged the Russians to go forward in Georgia. Putin must have reasoned that, if we wouldn't aggressively punish the Iranians and the Syrians for killing Americans in Iraq and Afghanistan, we would certainly not risk American lives for Georgian territory. And he was clearly right. The lesson will not be lost on any American friend or ally, from Israel to Egypt, Morocco, and India, from Colombia to Taiwan, Thailand, and Indonesia.

The real context of the Georgian operation is global, just like the true context of the Middle East war. The jihadis, for example, are desperate to convince would-be followers that there is really nothing to fear from America, that when push comes to shove the Americans will not stand and fight. A successful Russian humiliation of America in the Caucasus echoes throughout that world, and helps draw the painful sting of the defeat of al-Qaeda in Iraq. The likes of Venezuela's Chavez will find it easier to convince Latin American leaders that they'd better side with him (and his Cuban, Russian, and Iranian allies) than with the American paper tigers. 

Finally, there is the question of method, and the world's reaction to it. I hope we will not hear too many sermons on the inappropriateness of military action after the Georgian invasion. My unscientific perusal of the Western punditocracy suggests that most of the deep thinkers are full of admiration for Putin's decisive actions. No big antiwar demonstrations (the Europeans are on vacation and Code Pink, in response to a query, said their resources were limited and they needed to concentrate on Iraq, heh). This should not surprise us. It is not only the hypocrisy of the anti-Bush brigades here and abroad that motivates such open appeasement; it's human nature seen plain. As Machiavelli says, in his brutal summary of the consequences of victory and defeat, "if you are successful, people will always judge the means you used to have been appropriate."

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